User manual for the Quick and Immediate Risk Assessment (QIRA) algorithm for Member States

Overview

The Quick and Immediate Risk Assessment (QIRA) algorithm is a practical and systematic tool designed to support Member States in rapidly determining the level of risk posed by a public health signal or event affecting a given population at the time of assessment. It is embedded within routine public health intelligence activities and is intended for immediate use by teams responsible for event detection and verification at national and subnational levels. QIRA provides early orientation on the level of risk associated with an event and links this assessment to predefined immediate actions, enabling timely and proportionate decision-making during rapidly evolving situations. In urgent circumstances, the algorithm may be applied even before full event verification, and it can be updated iteratively as new epidemiological or contextual information becomes available. The assessment is conducted across five core domains: (i) high-threat hazard, (ii) exposure, (iii) severity, (iv) potential spread and scale, and (v) capacity (including vulnerabilities). Using an all-hazards approach, QIRA applies to signals and events caused by infectious, zoonotic, chemical, radiological or other public health hazards.